We’ve been with caution in taking lengthy positions, questioning the actual substance and practicality for the short term behind President Trump statements about tax cuts and also the financial market regulation. We began to check out goods to try and illustrate the way the situation might unfold.
Lets move ahead with that path.
First, the S&P 500. H4:
The index lost short term support, but stored on testing it around the upside, and new highs were marked. Nevertheless, it appears to become loosing that incredible trust that drove up because the ninth of Feb, as signalled also through the divergence around the RSI.
When we change to the daily chart:
Two doji along with a third one developing these days, signalling a lot of uncertainty.
Once more, the popularity is bullish, without doubt about this. Things I am attempting to outline may be the sustainability of these an enormous trend, especially for the short term, to adequately assess the risk/reward ratio of lengthy trades at this era.
Lets now take a look at Europe. This is actually the DAX 30M chart:
Here the slow lower is much more apparent. Not just the index lost its very steep temporary support, it broke the 2nd dynamic support, tested it and it is now testing short term static resistance, heading back towards short term dynamic support.
Lets proceed to goods. A week ago we known as the potential of an additional rise when the stock markets would lose strength, indicating 1245 as an amount to look at carefully.
This really is XAUUSD daily chart and: there it’s, effectively braking through 1250 and today challenging level 1265.
That tall eco-friendly braking with the static resistance around the daily chart is actually a strength signal, that is consistent with what’s going on using the DAX, not (yet?) using the S&P 500.
We’ve also being searching in the OIL prices, affirming that, following the cut made the decision by OPEC, the interest should be shifted in the supply side towards the demand side, to ensure that a potential rise in cost would heavily rely on the actual expectorations of the further recover from the global economy, having a particular concentrate on the US.
WTI is held in a side market forever of December, ignoring the fireworks around the US stock markets. We actually have a temporary double top created a week ago.
The technical situation from the stock indexes and also the intermarket analysis appear to become indicating a pause within this endless rally around the stock markets. We ought to also take into account that PE ratios are very stressed which the VIX is below 12, an very low-level signalling a massive, maybe excessive confidence through the investors.
Allow me to continue doing this again: the popularity is bullish, and buying and selling from the trend is harmful, but..
A minimum of we ought to think about taking lengthy positions at this time, a minimum of for the short term, calculating your exposure and setting the stops appropriately.